Coding

Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs

Try it

Pair NO-advance with YES-winner legs for the same 2026 World Cup team to trade cross-market mispricing.

What it does

Pair NO-advance with YES-winner legs for the same 2026 World Cup team to trade cross-market mispricing.

The skill document

Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs

Strategy source: https://x.com/zETHerka/status/2061162222156460540

Thesis

This skill links two related market types for the same team:

  • group-stage advancement
  • outright World Cup winner

It enters a pair:

  • buy NO on "team to advance"
  • buy YES on "team to win World Cup"

The goal is to monetize structural mispricing and event-driven repricing between connected markets.

What it does

  • scans active 2026 World Cup advance + winner markets
  • pairs markets by normalized team name
  • computes pair economics:
    • pair_cost = (1 - advance_yes) + winner_yes
    • settle edge if team fails to advance: 1 - pair_cost
    • reprice edge if team advances: (winner_yes + boost) - pair_cost
  • enters only when both edge thresholds pass
  • applies spread/slippage safeguards + cooldown + daily budget
  • supports --venue (sim, polymarket, kalshi)

Defaults

  • dry-run by default
  • per leg: $4 (pair spend = $8)
  • daily budget: $30
  • max pairs/run: 2
  • winner repricing boost: +0.10
  • team universe seeded with 15 national teams (editable via team_universe)

Run

cd skills/polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --config
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --live
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --positions

Tune

python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set per_leg_usd=5
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set winner_reprice_boost=0.12
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_settle_edge=0.03
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_cross_gap=0.25
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_reprice_edge=-0.30

Deterministic spec (Skill Builder style)

Signal

  • Team appears in both advance + winner market sets
  • Pair has positive floor in fail-advance and advance+reprice scenarios

Entry logic

  • Buy NO on advance leg and YES on winner leg for same team
  • Require both settle_edge and reprice_edge thresholds

Exit logic

  • v0.1 focuses on disciplined pair entry
  • explicit exit rules can be added in future revision

Market selection

  • Active 2026 FIFA World Cup team-advance and outright-winner markets

Position sizing

  • fixed per_leg_usd on each leg

Risk controls

  • max_spread, max_slippage_pct
  • cooldown_hours
  • max_pairs_per_run
  • daily_budget_usd
  • optional safeguards (--no-safeguards disables)

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