World Cup Assist Value Trading

World Cup Assist Value Signal Tool

Scans all "World Cup: Most Assists" markets on Simmer and compares each player's market-implied probability to a form-based expected value computed from FBref/ESPN stats. Prints signals when the market price sits 8%+ below the model's expected price.

🚨 Framework, not a production trading system. Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting to a wallet with real funds. Defaults: dry-run, $10 max per trade, 5 trades max per run.

This is a template. The default signal is FBref/ESPN club-form assists data fed through an unbacktested scoring formula — remix it with your own stats source or weighting. The skill handles market discovery and signal ranking; your agent provides the alpha.

This is a signal tool, not an automated trade executor — by default it only prints ranked buy signals. Live trading via SimmerClient is gated behind DRY_RUN = False and is off by default.

How it works

1. Market discovery: Fetches all outcomes from Simmer's "World Cup: Most Assists" market using SimmerClient.get_markets(q="assists").
2. Filter: Ignores any player priced below 2% — these are longshots where the model's signal is mostly noise.
3. Form-based value: For each remaining player, searches FBref/ESPN/WhoScored via Tavily for recent club assist numbers and converts them into an expected market price.
4. Comparison: If the form-based expected price is at least 8% above the live market price, the player is flagged as a buy signal.
5. Output: Signals are printed sorted by discount size, capped at 5 per run. In dry-run (default), nothing is traded — only printed. If DRY_RUN = False, trades are placed via SimmerClient.trade(), tagged with source and skill_slug, and include reasoning.

Remixing this skill

• Swap the stats source (FBref/ESPN/WhoScored) for any other data provider.
• Adjust the scoring weights in get_expected_price().
• Change THRESHOLD, MIN_PRICE, MAX_TRADE_USD, or MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN to fit your own risk tolerance.

Notes

• The fair-value formula is a first pass and has not been backtested against historical World Cup results.
• Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and TAVILY_API_KEY environment variables.
• Designed to be run on a schedule (cron) ahead of matches involving tracked teams.

Linked Files

• references/player_baselines.md - Baseline stats for monitored players
• references/2024_25_baseline_refresh.md - Auditable 2024/25 baseline refresh notes
• references/2025_26_baseline_refresh.md - Auditable 2025/26 baseline refresh notes
• references/world_cup_2026_fixtures.md - World Cup 2026 match schedule
• references/research_notes.md - Methodology, limitations, and improvement notes
• scripts/signal.py - Executable signal generation script (dry-run mode)
• DISCLAIMER.md - Required disclaimer, read before live use