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Polymarket Edge Detector

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Polymarket prediction market edge detector. Compares Polymarket binary-option prices against external reference probabilities (polls, prediction APIs, market...

What it does

Polymarket prediction market edge detector. Compares Polymarket binary-option prices against external reference probabilities (polls, prediction APIs, market-implied odds) to find mispriced contracts. Scores markets by edge, liquidity, time-to-resolution, and historical accuracy. Surfaces +EV bets for political, sports, and crypto price markets. Built for prediction market traders, sports bettors crossing over to prediction markets, and DeFi quants looking for Sharpe outside pure trading.

The skill document

Polymarket Edge Detector

Find mispriced binary contracts on Polymarket. Compares market price to an external reference probability and surfaces +EV setups with liquidity, time-to-resolution, and confidence scoring.

When to use

  • User wants to find +EV Polymarket bets
  • Comparing a market's price to a poll or external model
  • Hunting low-liquidity markets where a thin order book misprices
  • Tracking edge decay over time as resolution approaches
  • Screening markets by category (politics, sports, crypto)

Commands

python3 scripts/edge_detector.py scan            # All open markets, ranked by edge
python3 scripts/edge_detector.py scan --category politics
python3 scripts/edge_detector.py market    # Single market deep-dive
python3 scripts/edge_detector.py watch           # Stream prices, alert on edge>5%
python3 scripts/edge_detector.py resolve     # Mark resolution, track accuracy

Output

JSON with: market_id, question, category, yes_price, no_price, reference_prob, edge_pct, implied_odds, liquidity_usd, days_to_resolution, edge_decay_pct, signal (BUY_YES, BUY_NO, PASS), and a confidence score 0-100.

Environment

  • POLY_API_URL - Polymarket CLOB endpoint (default: https://clob.polymarket.com)
  • EDGE_THRESHOLD_PCT - Minimum edge to surface (default: 3.0)
  • REFERENCE_SOURCE - which external probability to use: poll, model, market_implied (default: market_implied)
  • Works with mock data offline; production uses Polymarket's public CLOB API

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