Data & analysis

Alphagbm Vol Surface

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3D volatility surface analysis mapping implied volatility across strikes (moneyness) and expirations. Shows whether options are cheap or expensive at every p...

What it does

3D volatility surface analysis mapping implied volatility across strikes (moneyness) and expirations. Shows whether options are cheap or expensive at every point on the surface. Returns surface grid data, ATM term structure, skew by expiry, and surface anomalies. Use when: checking if IV is expensive, analyzing term structure, finding mispriced options, understanding volatility dynamics. Triggers on: "vol surface AAPL", "is NVDA IV expensive", "volatility term structure SPY", "surface analysis TSLA", "IV surface META", "show me the vol surface".

The skill document

AlphaGBM Volatility Surface

Prerequisites

  • API Key: Set env ALPHAGBM_API_KEY (format agbm_xxxx...).
  • Base URL: Default https://alphagbm.zeabur.app. Override with env ALPHAGBM_BASE_URL.

What This Skill Does

Builds a 3D volatility surface for any optionable ticker, mapping implied volatility across two dimensions -- strike price (moneyness) and time to expiration. Identifies where options are cheap, expensive, or anomalous relative to the surface.

Key Outputs

OutputWhat It Shows
Surface GridIV at each (strike, expiry) coordinate -- the full 3D map
ATM Term StructureHow at-the-money IV changes across expirations (front-month vs. back-month)
Skew by ExpiryPut-call IV differential at each expiration -- measures fear/complacency
Surface AnomaliesPoints where IV deviates significantly from the fitted surface -- potential mispricings
Surface ShapeClassification: contango, backwardation, flat, inverted, event-driven

What the Surface Tells You

  • Contango (front IV < back IV): Normal market, no near-term fear
  • Backwardation (front IV > back IV): Near-term event expected (earnings, FDA, etc.)
  • Steep skew: Market pricing tail risk in puts -- hedging demand is high
  • Flat skew: Balanced sentiment -- no strong directional fear
  • Anomaly detected: A specific contract is mispriced vs. neighbors -- potential opportunity

Volatility Risk Premium (VRP)

VRP = Implied Vol - Historical Vol
VRP LevelSellerBuyer
very_high (>=15%)Very favorableUnfavorable
high (5-15%)FavorableSlightly unfavorable
normal (+/-5%)NeutralNeutral
low (-15% to -5%)UnfavorableFavorable
very_low (<-15%)Very unfavorableVery favorable

API Endpoints

Volatility Surface (3D)

GET /api/options/tools/vol-surface/

Returns the full 3D volatility surface with moneyness axis, expiry axis, and IV grid.

IV Snapshot (quick check, no quota cost)

For a fast ATM IV / IV Rank / HV / VRP check without pulling the full surface:

GET /api/options/snapshot/

Returns: ATM IV, IV Rank, HV 30d, VRP, VRP level.

How to Use

Input

  • Required: Ticker symbol
  • Optional: Moneyness range (e.g., 0.8-1.2), expiration range (e.g., 7-90 days)

Output Structure

{
  "ticker": "AAPL",
  "price": 218.45,
  "surface": {
    "moneyness_axis": [0.85, 0.90, 0.95, 1.00, 1.05, 1.10, 1.15],
    "expiry_axis": ["2026-04-04", "2026-04-18", "2026-05-16", "2026-06-20"],
    "iv_grid": [
      [38.2, 34.5, 31.0, 28.5, 30.2, 33.1, 36.8],
      [36.1, 33.0, 29.8, 27.2, 28.9, 31.5, 34.9],
      [34.5, 31.8, 28.5, 26.0, 27.5, 30.0, 33.2],
      [33.0, 30.5, 27.8, 25.5, 26.8, 29.0, 31.8]
    ]
  },
  "atm_term_structure": {
    "2026-04-04": 28.5,
    "2026-04-18": 27.2,
    "2026-05-16": 26.0,
    "2026-06-20": 25.5
  },
  "skew": {
    "2026-04-18": {"25d_put_iv": 33.0, "25d_call_iv": 28.9, "skew": -4.1}
  },
  "shape": "contango",
  "anomalies": [
    {
      "strike": 200,
      "expiry": "2026-04-18",
      "iv": 38.5,
      "expected_iv": 34.2,
      "deviation_sigma": 2.3,
      "signal": "overpriced"
    }
  ]
}

Example Queries

User SaysWhat Happens
"Vol surface AAPL"Full 3D surface with term structure, skew, anomalies
"Is NVDA IV expensive?"Compares current surface to 30-day historical average
"Volatility term structure SPY"ATM IV across all expirations with shape classification
"Surface analysis TSLA"Full surface + anomaly detection for mispriced contracts
"Front-month vs back-month IV for META"Term structure with contango/backwardation call

Mock Data

Demo tickers available without API key: AAPL, NVDA, SPY, TSLA, META. Surface data uses realistic IV snapshots from mock-data/.

  • alphagbm-vol-smile -- Zoom into a single expiration's smile/skew curve
  • alphagbm-iv-rank -- Is IV high or low vs. its own history?
  • alphagbm-options-score -- Use surface insights to find the best-scored contracts
  • alphagbm-options-strategy -- High IV surface suggests selling premium; low IV suggests buying

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