dow-theory-framework

当用户要用量能（交易量）与持仓兴趣来验证价格信号、判断趋势健康度，或理解胀爆/抛售高潮、交易商分类报告（COT）等时激活。 核心是"价格第一、量能第二"，量能只是验证价格的旁证。 不适用于：单纯画价格线（转 trend-tools）、摆动指数超买超卖（转 oscillators-contrarian）。 关键 trigger 词：成交量验证、持仓兴趣、量价背离、突破量能、胀爆、抛售高潮、COT、交易商分类报告。 Activate when the user wants to use volume and open interest to confirm price signals, judge trend health, or understand blowoffs/selling climaxes and the COT (commitments of traders) report. The core is "price first, volume second" - volume is only corroborating evidence. Not applicable: simply drawing price lines (-> trend-tools), oscillator overbought/oversold (-> oscillators-contrarian). Key trigger words: volume confirmation, open interest, volume-price divergence, breakout volume, blowoff, selling climax, COT, trader classification report.

当用户要在图上识别并利用支撑与阻挡（含角色互换）、绘制/判定趋势线与管道线、用百分比回撤找加仓区、 理解速度线/扇形原理、或识别价格跳空与反转日时激活。这是全书最高频、最落地的工具集。 不适用于：判断宏观趋势层级（转 dow-theory-framework）、识别头肩等特定形态（转 reversal-patterns）。 关键 trigger 词：支撑位阻力位、趋势线怎么画、跌破趋势线、50%回撤、跳空、反转日、扇形。 Activate when the user wants to identify and use support & resistance (incl. role reversal), draw/judge trendlines and channels, use percentage retracement for add-zones, understand speed lines/fan principle, or identify price gaps and reversal days. This is the highest-frequency, most practical toolset in the book. Not applicable: judging macro trend hierarchy (-> dow-theory-framework), identifying specific patterns like head-and-shoulders (-> reversal-patterns). Key trigger words: support/resistance, how to draw trendline, break below trendline, 50% retracement, gap, reversal day, fan.

当用户在图上看到或怀疑头肩形、双重顶/底、三重顶/底、圆顶圆底、V 形等"价格图案"并想据此判断趋势反转时激活。 重点是形态的"完成条件"（必须先有趋势 + 颈线/关键位突破 + 量能验证），而非看见类似形状就行动。 不适用于：持续形态（转 continuation-patterns）、通用支撑阻挡线（转 trend-tools）。 关键 trigger 词：头肩顶/底、双重顶双重底、三重顶、圆底、V形反转、形态完成、颈线突破。 Activate when the user sees or suspects head-and-shoulders, double top/bottom, triple top/bottom, rounding, or V shapes on the chart and wants to judge trend reversal. Focus is on the "completion conditions" (must have a prior trend + neckline/key-level breakout + volume confirmation), not acting on a merely similar shape. Not applicable: continuation patterns (-> continuation-patterns), generic support/resistance (-> trend-tools). Key trigger words: head-and-shoulders top/bottom, double top/bottom, triple top, rounding bottom, V reversal, pattern completion, neckline breakout.

当用户问摆动指数（RSI/KD/%R/MACD/ROC/动力指数）的超买超卖、背离，或相反意见理论（看涨一致数字、 COT 持仓报告、看跌/看涨期权比）的情绪极端信号，并需要理解"趋势市 vs 横盘市用法相反"时激活。 不适用于：趋势方向/均线交叉（转 moving-averages）、画趋势线（转 trend-tools）。 关键 trigger 词：RSI 超买超卖、KD 金叉死叉、MACD 背离、%R、相反意见、看涨一致数字、市场情绪、COT。 Activate when the user asks about oscillator (RSI/KD/%R/MACD/ROC/momentum) overbought/oversold and divergences, or contrary-opinion theory (bullish consensus, COT report, put/call ratio) sentiment extremes, and needs to understand that "usage in trending vs range-bound markets is opposite". Not applicable: trend direction / MA cross (-> moving-averages), drawing trendlines (-> trend-tools). Key trigger words: RSI overbought/oversold, KD cross, MACD divergence, %R, contrary opinion, bullish consensus, market sentiment, COT.

当用户要落实"由长到短"的分析流程、用复合头寸化解突破择时两难、做日内逐步聚焦（日线→5分钟线）， 或需要交易前核对清单（21 条要领 / 23+8 技术分析清单）与"预先/当场/伺后"入市策略时激活。 不适用于：仓位规模与止损距离（转 money-management）、趋势方向判定（转 trend-tools）。 关键 trigger 词：交易策略、择时、入市时机、突破跟不跟、复合头寸、日内聚焦、交易清单、邓尼根突刺、盲信传媒、独立研判、重仓跟进、计划。 Activate when the user wants to implement the "long-to-short" analysis flow, use compound positions to resolve the breakout-timing dilemma, do intraday progressive focus (daily -> 5-min), or needs a pre-trade checklist (21 essentials / 23+8 TA checklist) and "pre/at/post entry" strategies. Not applicable: position sizing and stop distance (-> money-management), trend direction (-> trend-tools). Key trigger words: trading strategy, timing, entry timing, follow breakout or not, compound position, intraday focus, trading checklist, Dunnigan thrust, blindly trust media, independent judgment, heavy follow, plan.

当用户问时间周期（CRB 10.5 个月、28 天交易周期、季节性）、用"波峰左移/右移"判趋势拐点，或想用 周期窗口择时，并需要"周期须与传统信号验证""熊市少做周期抄底"等约束时激活。 不适用于：数艾略特波浪（转 elliott-wave）、均线趋势跟踪（转 moving-averages）。 关键 trigger 词：周期、季节性、波峰左移右移、28天、10.5个月、时间窗、1月高点、大豆4-7月、天数、上涨下跌天数。 Activate when the user asks about time cycles (CRB 10.5-month, 28-day trading cycle, seasonality), uses "peak left/right shift" to judge turning points, or wants to time with cycle windows, with constraints like "cycles must be confirmed by traditional signals" and "avoid cycle bottom-fishing in bear markets". Not applicable: counting Elliott waves (-> elliott-wave), MA trend-following (-> moving-averages). Key trigger words: cycle, seasonality, peak left/right shift, 28 days, 10.5 months, time window, January high, soybean Apr-Jul, day count, up/down day count.