Alphagbm Polymarket

AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration

Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.

What This Skill Does

How to Use

Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.

Output:

• Event probability comparison table: Polymarket probability vs options-implied probability
• Probability spread and direction (which market is more bullish/bearish on the event)
• Mispricing signals ranked by confidence and spread size
• Suggested options trades to exploit the mispricing
• Historical accuracy comparison for similar past events

Example Queries:

• polymarket signals — Scan for the largest probability mismatches right now
• prediction market vs options rate cut — Compare Fed rate cut odds across markets
• event probability election — Election outcome probabilities vs options positioning
• rate cut odds — What prediction markets and options each imply about the next Fed meeting
• polymarket arbitrage — Actionable mispricing opportunities

Mock Data

Mock data files are located in mock-data/polymarket/ and include:

• rate-cut-comparison.json — Fed rate cut probabilities: Polymarket vs options-implied
• event-scan.json — Top mispricing signals across active prediction markets
• historical-accuracy.json — Past event forecasting accuracy by market type

API Endpoint

GET /api/analytics/polymarket/signals
GET /api/analytics/polymarket/event/{event_id}

Query parameters:

• event_type (string) — Filter: "fed", "election", "earnings", "macro", "all"
• min_spread (float, default 0.10) — Minimum probability spread to surface (10%)
• include_trades (bool, default true) — Include suggested options trades

Response fields: events[], polymarket_prob, options_implied_prob, spread, confidence, suggested_trades[], historical_accuracy

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